The Dangers of Hype and Bragging

When uncle Boris started talking about an irrevocable exit from pandemic, I thought to myself “that is a pretty stupid thing to say. Talk about setting potentially unrealistic expectations.”

Now people are talking about Freedom Day. Oh dear.

Unless you have worked extensively with non-linear equations it is really easy to misunderstand. Most people have linear only thinking.

Back when things started to kick off in the USA, I started doing a naïve, no assumption modelling of the incoming data. A simple exponential fit predicted very well the initial and fast ramp up in case numbers.

I have had a little play with the most recent UK case numbers.

This ultra-naïve model which does not as yet fit very well predicts over 7000 cases a day in a couple of weeks, rising reasonably quickly to over ten thousand.

The so-called irrevocability is very much in the balance…