Am I Missing Something or Is Confirmation Bias at Work?

Before we had our Moderna vaccination the doctor advised us to take some paracetamol and prescribed some for the next few days. This seems a sensible way to approach side-effects.

I can be pretty sure that I am building an immune response because I had a mild fever and was dripping with sweat all last night.

We tend to watch both French and UK news. The UK Conservative party coverage is all about “hey look we did a great vaccine roll out, don’t pay any attention to our other failings focus only on the vaccine. It is that and not all the confinement measures which has halted circulation. All hail the great vaccine campaign.” But the numbers are going up, now that people are circulating again and even when there is substantial vaccination coverage.

This empirical only exponential fit suggests >20,000 case per day in three weeks’ time. There are currently around 8,000 cases a day.

Here in France the numbers are going down, currently around 3,000 cases a day. The vaccination campaign is not so advanced. And there has been much less restrictive lock downs although there has been curfew. I guess the idea is work, earn money and keep the economy going. Then go home to bed {alone}, without getting pissed up at the pub on the way home.

If it is all down to the vaccine campaign, then how come the numbers are rising in a heavily vaccinated population. The Tories are pitching it as a race vaccination versus virus. This is not the 3:30 at Ascot old chap.

Here is a mild hypothesis.

Because people want so badly to go back to normal in a so-called irrevocable manner, they are not able to see what the data are telling them. {Again} They have become complacent.

Maybe I am missing something…