525,527 contaminations détectées

This from Le Figaro

Le 17 janvier a marqué un record de contaminations détectées. Pour autant, plusieurs indicateurs laissent entrevoir une sortie de crise.

Le virus circule toujours activement dans le pays, puisque chaque jour plus de 300.000 personnes (en moyenne sur les sept derniers jours) sont testées positives. Le 17 janvier a marqué un record, avec 525.527 contaminations détectées. Pour autant, derrière ce niveau de contamination stratosphérique, plusieurs indicateurs laissent entrevoir une sortie de crise. Dans un avis publié jeudi 20 janvier, le Conseil scientifique envisage même «le début de la fin» pour les mois de mars ou avril – tout en alertant sur la semaine à venir, qui risque d’être très difficile dans les hôpitaux.

Nearly every department including ours has more than 2000 cases per 100,000 people

This means if you meet fifty people there is a good chance you will have a Covid contact. 2% of the population or more have covid.

About A Million Cases

There have been around a million cases of covid 19 reported in France in the last three days. The population is ~65 million. So very roughly 2% of the population tested positive for the virus in just the last three days. Using a rough time lag between infection and death that points at, in a couple of weeks time, 4000 deaths a week.

I suspect Monday’s number will be really high. Most things are shut on a Sunday.

When I was last in town there was a queue outside of the nurse’s office waiting for either PCR test or vaccination.

The wife gave a blood sample to test if she has any coronavirus antibodies and we find out soon.

We have had two Moderna and one Pfizer…

The doctor said that there is a 66% chance that she will have some, though now she is immune compromised. I am filling her with antibiotics and anti-viral drugs.

Great time to get blood cancer – in the middle of a global pandemic. They have put off my routine colon cancer follow up colonoscopy for now.

If the spread continues according to the very rough similation below there could be as many as half a million cases per day by the end of next week!!

It might be time for me to do the heparin injections so that the nurses only come here once a week for blood tests…Might go back into “prepper” mode…click and collect etc.


From Alpha to Omega – Who Cares About Variants?

In all the discussion in the media I have notice a whopping great hole. People go on about not overwhelming hospitals, about Covid induced staff shortages as each day hundreds of thousands of new cases sample the virus mutation potential energy hypersurface.

It is the large pink elephant in the room.

It seems that people are blind or don’t want to know. By allowing the case numbers to escalate the probability of a new and potentially more lethal variant(s) skyrockets.

I wonder will it be the omega or the omega plus variant, which is the downfall of the complacent, the fatigued and bored? From beginning to end, from alpha to omega. The UK by its approach to high case numbers has increased the likelihood that it is responsible, yes directly responsible for a new virus mutation.

It is OK so long as we can get pissed out of our skulls on New Year’s Eve, we don’t care if we germinate new variants here, so long as we had a good time…and the jolly NHS is not overwhelmed.

Where is the notion of responsibility towards others?

Self-Centred Mess and SARS-Ninja-CoV-3

A while back I predicted that unless people adopted a global approach to this pandemic it was very likely that the virus would mutate and severely so. We have a new variant which is not so easily defended against by the older vaccine generated immunity. In the UK they boasted about the wonderful vaccine roll-out, world-beating, allegedly. Meanwhile in the poor countries the virus mutates, and the pandemic drags on. How much will it have to mutate until it is designated SARS-CoV-3? What alphabet will they use for variants when they have exhausted the Greek one? Perhaps we shall start on the kanji…

This me first orientation, or self-centred behaviour can cause mess. The UK had a health secretary who snogged his mistress when he was telling everybody else to socially distance. And there is a prime minister who held a Christmas party when lockdown was on. It is one rule for us deities and quite another for you, the plebs. I think they lost the willing cooperation of the British a long time ago. They are only being tolerated now and in a very British way. It is a foxtrotting shambles.

I can think of multiple examples where blinkered self-centred behaviours have induced ginormous and long-lasting messes. Messes that are intractable to solution and which cannot be cleaned up. People with pathological and morbid autoproctological self-interest never imagine the consequences. In their self-diagnosed omniscience, they are unaware of anything other than their own wishes and desires. They know best after all.

According to the myth the last time humanity has its head so far up its own arse the planetary logos destroyed Atlantis….

We have a world beating vaccination programme, it does not matter if the brown people or Latinos get Covid. WE are just fine and dandy. Are we not smart, smug and clever?

Where Is the Coronavirus Story Going?

I saw some reports from Reuters this morning:

“TOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) – Moderna Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine contamination woes in Japan have widened with another million doses being temporarily suspended, after foreign substances were found in more batches and two people died following shots from affected lots.

The suspension of Moderna supplies, affecting more than 2.6 million does in total, comes as Japan battles its worst wave of COVID-19 yet, driven by the contagious Delta variant, with new daily infections exceeding 25,000 this month for the first time amid a slow vaccine rollout.”

“Japan earlier halted the use of 1.63 million Moderna doses, shipped to 863 vaccination centres nationwide after the domestic distributor, Takeda Pharmaceutical received reports of contaminants in some vials.

Some 500,000 people received shots from those supplies, Taro Kono, the minister in charge of the vaccine push, has said.

Moderna and Spanish pharma company Rovi, which bottles Moderna vaccines for markets other than the United States, said at the time that the contamination could be due to a manufacturing issue in one of Rovi’s production lines.

Takeda said on Monday that the investigation is ongoing.

Rovi shares plunged more than 20% in early trade.”


Here are the Covid infection graphs for France

United Kingdom

And Israel

In two of the “most” vaccinated countries UK and Israel, the case numbers are on the up. The quicker acting and more decisive Israelis have started giving a third booster shot to its population.

I am wondering if viral complacency is setting in, or a kind of fatigue, with imagined immunity causing risky behaviours.

In the UK massive festivals are underway and football is back on…

The UK will overtake France in terms of total number of Covid cases soon. It is again climbing the charts so to speak.

I have heard that UK univesities are putting on charter flights to bring fee paying Chinese students to help fill their depleted coffers, with a few Yuan…

Here mask wearing is still mandatory indoors in many places and the prefecture has introduced it in popular places externally as well. In the centre of our local town, you now have to wear a mask outdoors and whenever you are waiting in line. The restrictions will be reduced late September. Our incidence is ~150 per 100,000. The number of double vaccinated is up and I had to show my Pass Sanitaire before they let me into the clinic the other day. It was my first colonoscopy wearing a surgical mask. They even repositioned it over the oxygen feed.

It looks as if maintaining mask wearing keeps the numbers down and it has the psychological reminder inherent.

The fat lady has not yet sung, the pandemic is not over. The surge of “yeah we are free” optimism has started to fade. The irreversibility touted by Boris is not looking quite as irreversible as he may have hoped. This looks to be a long haul thing.

It looks like, depending on the Israel data, we shall all be getting a third booster shot. Ours will be from Moderna, the made in Spain variety.

Companies will be trialing, like Moderna is, their vaccines 2.0 and 3.0.

These companies will be onto a nice litte earner for the forseeable future, a nice ongoing revenue stream.


Covid – Exponential Fits

I have listened to the morning news and the UK government are starting to back pedal a little about so-called “freedom day”.

The quality of fit for exponential growth continues to improve. This empirical fit predicts ~55,000 cases on freedom day. It does not include any factors such as mass quasi-religious-football-events at the Holy Shrine of Wembley.

The quality of fit for the French data is poorer, but the numbers here are on the up as well. We have ~ 4,500 as opposed to ~35,000 per day.

Once again the UK is leading and will climb the Covid case number chart, pop-pickers.

The so called Delta variant is here and if I understand it correctly the Lambda variant is in the UK.

I know let’s fill Wembley Way with pissed up, sweaty people gobbing on each other with glee as the spirit of 1966 is reborn, ING-GER-LAND…

Whisky Tango Foxtrot…

It is coming home – football or SARS-CoV-2?

Isn’t it moronic, don’t you think?

Alanis Morissette

Hey man that car crash has started. Tonight, tens of thousands of pissed up Brits will watch a gladiatorial contest. They will sing and hug and spit on each other. They will sweat and jump up and down. They will prematurely celebrate Freedom Day.

Surf is up bro’.

Here comes the wave…


The world is watching, and do you really think that this kind of shit will attract investment?

A safe pair of hands?


The Wisdom of Irrevocable Assertion.

I am getting a bad feeling about this. A not yet peer reviewed pre-print.

Some people cannot ever admit that they are wrong or so it seems. They can dig for themselves a hole with the spade of pride. They can refuse to see what is happening before their eyes because they MUST be right. Macho bullshit can lead to a new pile of corpses because until their “position” becomes so obviously untenable they will refuse to admit any error. By the time it is untenable it is already too late.

We are hearing crazy PR terms like messaging.

I hope that this hole digging dynamic does not come into play. Once one has bigged something up so big, it is much harder to back down.